The first and best scenario is a number closer to the 272 mark or more which would mean a majority for the Modi led government. According to UBS, this could lead to near-term euphoria with the Nifty rallying upto 7800.
Low volumes and range-bound trade seems to be the market mood these days. But all that could change post May 16 - the day the election results are announced.
Dalal Street's recent surge to all-time highs has more-often-than-not been credited to the "Modi wave". And while many quarters have more or less factored in a BJP led NDA victory this election, market men though are keenly watching just how many seats a Modi- led BJP / NDA can garner.
UBS, for example, in its latest India strategy report has charted out possible scenarios based on their interaction with investors.
The first and best scenario is a number closer to the 272 mark or more which would mean a majority for the Modi led government. According to UBS, this could lead to near-term euphoria with the Nifty rallying upto 7800.
Also Read: How can Modi as PM transform Indian PSU banks?
The scenario on the opposite end of the spectrum will be a number below 220-230 for the NDA. This according to UBS may be taken negatively in the short term resulting in the Nifty correcting to levels of 5,800-6,100.
An in-between outcome, UBS says will be anything 230 and 272 seats for the NDA which will throw up uncertainty for the markets. In such a case, markets will not be moving as sharply as other two scenarios immediately till clarity emerges on the shape and stability of the new government.
While the short term moves for the Nifty will be based on seats, UBS believes the direction Dalal Street will take for the long term eventually boils down to the fundamentals, policy making and execution strategy of the new government that comes to power.
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