There is more good news for the BJP from western and central parts of India. The BJP is likely to sweep Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and firmly push the Congress to a distant second according to the CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey.
The five states account for 139 seats and except Maharashtra where both BJP and Congress have entered into an alliance, it is a direct fight between the two in other states.
Also Read: Post-poll survey: TMC dominates WB; BJD leads in Odisha
Maharashtra
The 'Narendra Modi wave' seems to have impacted voting in Maharashtra which has 48 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI combine is likely to make a big gain in the state by winning 33-37 seats with 44 per cent vote share.
The ruling Congress-NCP alliance may suffer a big setback in the state and win just 11-15 seats with 34 per cent vote share. The post-poll survey indicates that there has been not much change since the last pre-poll survey conducted in the last week of March. The last pre-poll survey had predicted 43 per cent vote share for the BJP-Shiv Sena combine and 33 per cent for the Congress-NCP combine.
The much hyped AAP may not get more than 3 per cent votes and is unlikely to win any seat. The MNS is expected to get 3 per cent, BSP 2 per cent and the others 14 per cent respectively.
In 2009 the Congress-NCP polled 38.9 per cent votes and the BJP-Shiv Sena got 37.8 per cent votes.
From the very beginning the BJP-Shiv Sena-RPI alliance has been predicting the defeat of Congress-NCP combine in Maharashtra. The state is going to Assembly election in October 2014.
The sample size for Maharashtra is 1798 and the post-poll survey was conducted in 28 Lok Sabha seats.
Gujarat
In Narendra Modi's home state of Gujarat, the result is likely to be one sided. According to the post-poll survey findings, the BJP is likely to get 21-25 seats with 53 per cent vote share. The Congress is likely to get 1-5 seats with 35 per cent vote share. Between the last pre-poll survey conducted in the last week of March and now, the BJP seems to have lost 2 per cent votes and the Congress seems to have gained 4 per cent votes.
In 2009, the BJP polled 46.6 per cent votes and won 15 Lok Sabha seats. The Congress won 11 Lok Sabha seats with 43.4 per cent vote share. Gujarat has 26 Lok Sabha seats.
The sample size for Gujarat is 876 respondents and the post-poll was conducted in 12 Lok Sabha seats.
Rajasthan
According to the post-poll survey the ruling BJP is sweeping Rajasthan. Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, who rode to power in December 2013, is expected to deliver a huge victory for her party.
The BJP is projected to win 22-24 seats with 50 per cent vote share. The opposition Congress, which was routed in the Assembly elections, is likely to meet the same fate once again. It is expected to get 1-3 seats with 34 per cent vote share.
In 2009, the Congress swept the polls with 47.2 per cent votes and 20 Lok Sabha seats. The BJP was polled 36.6 per cent votes and won just 4 Lok Sabha seats.
The sample size for the state is 1222 respondents and the post poll was conducted in 14 Lok Sabha seats. Rajasthan has 25 Lok Sabha seats.
Madhya Pradesh
The ruling BJP looks very strong in India's central state and is projected to get 24-28 seats with 50 per cent vote share. The Congress is expected to get 1-5 seats with 34 per cent vote share.
In 2009, the BJP won 18 seats with 43.4 per cent vote share and the Congress won 11 seats with 40.1 per cent vote share. Between our last pre-poll survey in the last week of March and now, the Congress has gained 6 per cent votes and the BJP has lost 2 per cent votes.
In a direct fight, 16 per cent gap can result in one sided result. The sample size for MP is 1129 and the post-poll was conducted in 13 Lok Sabha seats.
Chhattisgarh
The nail biting neck and neck fight in the 2013 Assembly election appears to be a thing of the past in Chhattisgarh. The ruling BJP is projected to get 51 per cent vote share. The opposition Congress may get just 31 per cent votes in the direct contest.
Between the last pre-poll conducted in the last week March and now, the BJP seems to have gained 7 per cent vote share. The Congress has lost 8 per cent vote share.
In 2009, the Congress got 37.3 per cent votes and won just 1 Lok Sabha seat. The BJP got 45 per cent votes and won 10 Lok Sabha seats. Chhattisgarh has 11 Lok Sabha seats.
The sample size for Chhattisgarh is 577 and the post-poll survey was conducted in 9 Lok Sabha seats.
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