The two most crucial states for the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections are Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where the party had put in all its might to win the maximum number of seats in its bid to form the next government at the Centre. BJP prime ministerial pick Narendra Modi had devoted a lot to time and energy in the two states where regional leaders like Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav, Bahujan Samaj Party's Mayawati, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad and Janata Dal United leader Nitish Kumar dominate the political landscape.
According to CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti post-poll survey the BJP is expected to do remarkably well in both Uttar Pradesh and Bihar decimating the regional satraps. The post-poll survey is based on the data of the first 8 rounds of polling in the two states and the data of ninth round will be given on Wednesday. While 18 seats in Uttar Pradesh voted in the ninth phase, in Bihar six seats went to vote on the final day.
Also Read: Post-poll survey: BJP-led NDA may sweep HP, Delhi, Punjab
Uttar Pradesh
In Uttar Pradesh the BJP is likely to win 45-53 seats with vote share of 40 per cent.
The ruling Samajwadi Party is likely to get 24 per cent vote share and may win 13-17 seats. The main opposition BSP of Mayawati may win 10-14 seats with 21 per cent vote share. The Congress-RLD alliance may get just 10 per cent vote share and end up with just 3-5 seats.
Others may get 5 percent votes.
Post-poll survey is based on the data of the first 8 rounds of polling in the state and the data of 9th round will be given on Wednesday. According to the data, the BJP is leading in 4 of the 5 regions whose data is already available with us. We are yet to get the data from 18 seats of Eastern UP, which voted on May 12.
The BJP has done well across the regions and both in urban and rural areas. According to post-poll survey, there has been a massive consolidation of upper castes, lower OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits are backing the BJP in a big number.
Narendra Modi is leading the PM choice with 39 respondents wanting him as the PM.
In 2009, the BJP polled a mere 17.5 per cent votes and won just 9 Lok Sabha seats.
The sample size for UP is 2009 up to 8th phase and the post-poll was conducted in 29 Lok Sabha seats across the state.
Bihar
The BJP-LJP alliance in Bihar is expected to register a big victory. According to the post-poll survey the BJP-LJP alliance is expected to win 21-27 seats with 43 per cent vote share. Lalu Prasad led Congress-RJD-NCP combine is expected to come second with 29 per cent votes and 11-15 seats. The ruling JDU of Nitish Kumar is likely to be decimated by getting just 15 per cent vote share and just 2-4 seats.
The others may get 13 per cent vote share in the state. There is no difference between the last pre-poll survey conducted in the last week of March and the post-poll survey.
In 2009, the JDU-BJP alliance had swept Bihar by getting more than 40 per cent votes.
The post-poll survey suggests that the BJP is leading across the state.
The sample size for Bihar is 1404 and the post poll survey was conducted in 21 Lok Sabha seats. Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats.
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